Geoshawk No. 5 / 29 January

Hey! Welcome to Geoshawk, by Shawknews. Geoshawk curates recent information operations and geopolitics-related headlines in the Caucasus, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Russia, MENA, and the US.

1. Global:

   1. Risk management in an age of geopolitical uncertainty: Davos 2024 insights (top1000funds)

      1. “Each crisis must be assessed based on its strategic importance to the organization or portfolio, demanding the ability to distinguish short-term noise from long-term trends. With conflict in Ukraine, Gaza, and now flare ups on the border of Iran and Pakistan just this past week, sifting through which events require action and which don’t will be a critical skill for investors.”

   2. Geopolitics and AI election risks temper Asia’s 2024 outlook (thebanker)

2. US:

   1. Pelosi faces criticism for suggesting some pro-Palestinian protesters are connected to Russia (wicz)

   2. Three US troops killed in drone attack in Jordan, more than 30 injured (CNN)

1. Russia:

   1. France accuses Russia of fake news campaign after debunked mercenary strike (Euromaidan)

      1. “The statement from the French government claims the Russian effort intensified following the French President’s reaffirmation of support for Ukraine in a 16 January press conference.”

   2. Burkina Faso thanks Russia for 'priceless gift' of wheat (bbc)

      1. “Nandy Some Diallo, Burkina Faso's minister for solidarity and humanitarian action, said the government was "delighted" and called the grain delivery a "priceless gift" that would benefit people who were internally displaced and vulnerable. Earlier this week, there were reports that a contingent of Russian troops had arrived in Burkina Faso. Last summer, Burkina Faso signed a deal with Russia in July for the construction of a nuclear power plant to increase its energy supply.”

   

   1. Pretrial detention for American reporter accused of spying in Russia extended through March

2. MENA:

   1. Iran launches 3 satellites into space that are part of a Western-criticized program

      1. “State TV named the launched satellites Mahda, Kayhan-2 and Hatef-1. It described the Mahda as a research satellite, while the Kayhan and the Hatef were nanosatellites focused on global positioning and communication respectively.”

   2. Istanbul church attack: Gunmen kill one person during Sunday morning mass

      1. “The Islamic State group has claimed responsibility for the attack.”

   

   1. Houthis rebels launch drone attack on British Navy ship HMS Diamond

      1. “It is not the first time the HMS Diamond has been targeted by the group. An attack earlier this month is widely seen as the step which triggered joint US-UK airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen, following months of provocation.”

3. Caucasus:

   1. Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry responds to Dutch Foreign Minister’s remarks (aze.media)

      1. “Bruins Slot had expressed concerns about recent statements from Azerbaijan, suggesting possible sanctions and offering negative views on the Azerbaijan-Armenia normalization process.”

   2. Georgia and Armenia Sign Strategic Partnership Agreement (caucasuswatch)

      1. “During a joint briefing with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of the Republic of Armenia, Garibashvili expressedoptimism and hope for the ongoing dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia. He voiced his desire for the two nations to sign a peace agreement soon, emphasizing that such an accord would bolster the existing peace in the region and contribute to stability.”

   3. Georgian Political Entities Convene to Discuss EU Recommendations, Seek Common Ground (caucasuswatch)

4. Central Asia:

   1. Kyrgyzstan: Once all-powerful Matraimov wanted for arrest (eurasianet)

      1. “The head of the security services in Kyrgyzstan has confirmed that the corrupt and once all-powerful former deputy chief of the customs service is wanted for arrest. The announcement by Kamchybek Tashiyev on January 27 opens a new chapter in the ruling regime’s campaign to wrest all the levers of control in the country from shadowy, behind-the-scenes operators.”

   2. Uzbekistan and China Eye $20 Billion in Bilateral Trade

      1. “Uzbekistan and China have set their sights on increasing their trade turnover to $20 billion “in the near future,” following high-level negotiations in Beijing on January 24 between Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Bilateral trade in 2023 hit the $14 billion mark.”

   

   1. KazTransOil reveals plans for transit of Russian oil to Uzbekistan in 2024 (trend.az)

      1. “In accordance with the oil supply schedule approved by the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, in January KazTransOil JSC will ensure the supply of 25,000 tons of Russian oil through the territory of the country to Uzbekistan.”